Present study develops short term electric load forecasting using neural network; based on historical series of power demand the neural network chosen for this network is feed forward network, this neural network has five input variables ( hour of the day, the day of the week, the load for the previous hour, the load of the pervious day, the load for the previous week). Short term load forecast is very important due to accurate for power system operation and analysis system security among other mandatory function. The trained artificial neural network shows good accuracy and robust in forecasting future load demands for the daily operation, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was calculated and it is maximum value is 0.75% in load forecasting on Monday.
Accurate long-term load forecasting (LTLF) is crucial for smart grid operations, but existing CNN-based methods face challenges in extracting essential featuresfrom electricity load data, resulting in diminished forecasting performance. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel ensemble model that integratesa feature extraction module, densely connected residual block (DCRB), longshort-term memory layer (LSTM), and ensemble thinking. The feature extraction module captures the randomness and trends in climate data, enhancing the accuracy of load data analysis. Leveraging the DCRB, our model demonstrates superior performance by extracting features from multi-scale input data, surpassing conventional CNN-based models. We evaluate our model using hourly load data from Odisha and day-wise data from Delhi, and the experimental results exhibit low root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.952 and 0.864 for Odisha and Delhi, respectively. This research contributes to a comparative long-term electricity forecasting analysis, showcasing the efficiency of our proposed model in power system management. Moreover, the model holds the potential to sup-port decisionmaking processes, making it a valuable tool for stakeholders in the electricity sector.
The electrical load is affected by the weather conditions in many countries as well as in Iraq. The weather-sensitive electrical load is, usually, divided into two components, a weather-sensitive component, and a weather-insensitive component. The research provides a method for separating the weather-sensitive electrical load into five components. and aims to prove the efficiency of the five-component load Forecasting model. The artificial neural network was used to predict the weather-sensitive electrical load using the MATLAB R17a software. Weather data and loads were used for one year for Mosul City. The performance of the artificial neural network was evaluated using the mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage error. The results indicate the accuracy of the prediction model used, MAPE equal to 0.0402.